R.W. Baird & Co. analyst William Power has projected 23.8 million iPhones sold to Verizon subscribers in the first year.
That’s more than a quarter of Verizon’s current subscriber base. But according to Power--who cautions that this is a “directional number” and not a forecast (there are constraints around how many devices Apple can actually ship)–-a recent Baird survey of 1,000 smartphone users supports it. From the survey:
>29 percent of current Verizon feature phone owners said they will “probably” or “definitely” upgrade to the Verizon iPhone in the next three months. The carrier has roughly 64 million postpaid feature phone users, so that’s 19 million potential iPhone upgrades, assuming eligibility.
>25 percent of Verizon’s current smartphone users said they will “probably” or “definitely” switch to the iPhone. That’s 4.8 million additional potential iPhone sales, again assuming eligibility.
Grand total: 23.8 million potential Verizon iPhone sales–from the carrier’s installed base alone. Add to that the 5.6 percent of current AT&T iPhone users who told Baird they planned to switch to Verizon and that number rises to nearly 25 million.
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